No Regard

June 28, 2008

Best Bets for Saturday

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , — hoyler @ 8:53 am

So my first dive into this was pretty bad, as I was 1-2 on Tuesday. However, that had nothing to do with Doug Davis, who I correctly pegged to stop the Red Sox. His bullpen blew a 3-run lead late and cost him a big win on the road.

With that, here are today’s best plays, courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Detroit Tigers (-175) over Colorado Rockies – Verlander over Francis

Justin Verlander is finding his old form fast, and the Tigers are playing more like the team thought by many in March to be the AL’s best. I’d be willing to load up big on this one, Francis has been absolutely brutal this year and his road split is worse than his home split.

Tampa Bay Rays VS Pittsburgh Pirates – OVER 9.5 (even) – Jackson VS Taubenheim

Edwin Jackson is a very strong bet in this game because he rarely ever holds teams to less than 3 baserunners every 2 innings. Likely scenario is that, at best, he allows 3 runs in 5. The more likely scenario is he allows 5 runs in 6. That leaves Tampa to score 5, which should be pretty damn easy considering the roll their on. Evan Longoria is starting to pull away with Rookie of the Year honors in the AL, making the 40 HR mark seem reachable. The sound of the ball coming off of his bat right now is something to behold; not to turn it into a Longo love fest, but it’s clear this guy is going to at least meet, if not match, the “David Wright of the AL” comparisons many labeled him with coming through the minors. I think he, along with a streaking Carl Crawford (I told you he’d heat up soon) will lead the Rays to another high-scoring win.

UPSET SPECIAL: Mikhail Youzhny (+130) over Radek Stepanek

This one has a chance to be a classic. Two players who excel at different things but have the experience battling toe-to-toe with the world’s best – you might remember Youzhny took the first two sets from Rafa Nadal last year at Wimbledon…before slowing down with a back problem and falling in five. Both guys went the distance in round two and will likely battle each other to the same conclusion here, leaving them useless for a possible fourth-round match with Nadal. On a side note, part of the reason I was so ready to pick Gasquet to come out of Rafa’s bracket is because I figured one of these guys would have the gas to wear Nadal down before Gasquet got to him. Doesn’t look like the case; either way, this one should be great and I think Youzhny wins enough long rallies with his backhand to stop Stepanek in give. Expect at least two sets to go to tiebreak.

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