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June 24, 2008

Best Bets For Tuesday, June 24

Filed under: MLB — Tags: , , , , — FBBNow @ 9:27 am

Good morning fellow degenerates. Here are the best plays for today, odds courtesy of

Tampa Bay (even) over Florida – Sonnanstine over Olsen

“Sonny” has been very good on the road this year, sporting a 24/5 K/BB ratio in 39 IP with just one start where he really didn’t give the Rays a chance to win (May 21 afternoon affair against Oakland, where he fell apart late after a strong start). Scott Olsen is coming off probably his second worst start of the season and while his sub-3 ERA at home looks good, he doesn’t have the peripherals to back it up. He also struggles against righties, so expect Jonny Gomes to get a rare start to leave just Akinori Iwamura and Carl Crawford or Eric Hinske as the only left-handed bats that have to play. 

Dodgers (-120) over White Sox (even) – Lowe over Buehrle

The White Sox are losers of nine straight on the road, and Buehrle is due for a bad start having put together four straight quality outings, the last three being eight-inning performances. Those are the types of trends you have to look for when betting on baseball – yes, Buehrle is a good pitcher, but his flyball rate is rising and he’ll be facing off with a pitcher who historically much better at Dodger Stadium than he is on the road. This will be a low-scoring, tight battle, but I expect Lowe to go 7 for the win. 

Upset Special: Diamondbacks (+160) over Red Sox (-180) – Davis over Masterson

Davis has put together two straight starts, but this is a risk because when he gets hit, he gets hit really hard and tends to lose control because of it. Still, 2 of his 3 road starts since his return from cancer treatment have been good, and as I said last week, Masterson’s luck (.185 BABIP, are you kidding?) won’t last forever. The Red Sox offense is running hot and cold, and while you could expect them to blow up tonight after two rough days (5 runs in 13 innings Sunday and 1 run yesterday), I’m going to take this upset over the other possibilities today like Kevin Slowey upending Jake Peavy at Petco. 


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